Tuesday, April 28, 2009

guest post

I received a mail from one of my friends which I reproduce in full

"quote"

Sometimes we underestimate ourselves. It takes a foreigner to put into perspective what a great people we really are and our tremendous achievement in the face of what appear to be insurmountable odds. Let us hope we can continue to remain the peaceful and tolerant people we have been through history. When fanaticism and fundamentalism rear their ugly heads in our country we must realise that they are the exception and not the rule. If we stop to compare ourseleves with our neighbours and the rising intolerance and xenophobia in even developed nations we should be truly grateful to be living in India .....
Bala

New York Times reader comment on India going to polls, "The world's biggest exercise in democracy"
April 15 2009 it is truly the gereatest show on Earth, an ode to a diverse and democratic ethoes , where 700 million + of humanity vote, providing providing their small part in directing their ancient civilisation into the future. It is no less impressive when done in a neighbourhood which includes de-stabilising and violent Pakistan, China and Burma.

Its challenges are immense, more so probably than anywhere else particularly in development and fending off terrirism - but considering these challenges and its neighbours, it is even more astounding that the most diverse nation on Earth , with hundreds of languages, all religions and cultures, is not only surviving but thriving.

The nation where Hinduism, Budhism, Jainism and Sikhism were born, which is the second largest Muslim nation on Earth; where Christianity has existed for 2000 years ; where the oldest Jewish synagogues and Jewish communities have resided since the Romans burnt their 2nd temple; where Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government in exile reside; where the Zorastrians from Persia have thrived since being thrown out of their ancient home land ; where Armenians and Syrians and many otheres have come to live;where the paris based OECD said was the largest economy on Earth 1500 of the last 2000 years, including the 2nd largest only 200 years ago; where 3 Muslim Presidents have been elected, where a Sikh is Prime Minister and the head of the ruling party a Catholic Italian woman, where the president is also a woman, succeeding a Muslim President who as rocket scientist was a hero in the nation; where a booming economy is lifting 40 million out of poverty each year and is expected to have the majority of it's population in the middle class, already equal to the entire US population, by 2025; where its optimism and vibrancy is manifested in its movies, arts, economic growth and voting, despite all the incredible challenges and hardships; where all the great powers are vying for influence as it itself finds its place in the world.
Where all of this is happening, is India and as greater than 1/10 of humanity gets ready to vote, it is an inspiration to all the world.

"unquote"

Amazing. No other nation can boast of such diversity. Perhaps it is our spiritual enlightment that has given us our exemplary tolerance . No wonder then the world looks to us for spiritual leadership. The readers comment as given above puts us on a high pedestal indeed. Comment on China however is debatable. China now is neither destabilising nor violent. It is now continuing to record the highest economic growth and is also a donor to IMF

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Curtains to Satyam episode

With the announcement of the successful bidder for scam hit Satyam Computers the collective sigh of relief must have been felt all over the globe. Here was a major international outsourcer almost on the throes of being vaporized into thin air lock stock and barrel. And yet Monday the announcement came that indeed there was a taker for Satyam. This is flabbergasting for it really required nerves to take a call on Satyam. It was like taking a shot blindfolded. The extent of class action suits abroad, the absence of a dependable balance sheet on which to base decisions particularly in terms of unknown liabilities, the mood of the clients notably the large ones and the merit of the need for the buyer to get to the bottom are sufficient reasons to deter any prospective investor from putting money. And in the beginning it looked as if the company was destined to go down under. That this did not happen speaks volumes of our ability to deal with a crisis. Prompt, decisive and purposeful actions by all concerned viz the Govt , the company law board and regulatory institutions not only helped bring about a quick solution but also did not leave any scope for criticism.

Not to be left behind is our entrepreneurship . It is said fortune favours the brave. Tech Mahindra , the successful bidder has been brave in putting its sight on Satyam. And who knows Satyam may turn out to be a fortune for Tech Mahindra. The benefits are immense. In one go Tech Mahindra has positioned itself into the major league along with the Infosyses and TCSs of the world. Instead of remaining confined to only telecom (BT which accounts for bulk of its buisiness) it now has other verticals such as financial services, manufacturing , healthcare and others. Tech Mahindra's client base has now taken a quantum leap and it can boast of such names as GE, Cisco, GM and Citi . And of course it now has nearly 48000 additional talent to tap into.

Will Tech Mahindra be able to put Satyam back on track or even increase its revenue and most importantly expand the margins. It should be possible. Mahindras are a successful business group with proven track record. Tech Mahindra's top management has talent required to build businesses . Besides the much talked about 3% margin might turn out to be not so big a dampener. Most software export companies have an operating profit margin of anything around 25-30 %. Therefore when Satyam gets back on cruise mode again after everything has been set in order it should be able to generate the prevalent margins. And this will be the bonanza that Tech Mahendra can strive for.

There is no doubt that the present valuation of Satyam is the result of the sad state of affairs that it had to go through in the past. And now that there is a new beginning and as someone said "A new star is born " fortune may indeed favour Tech Mahindra since the price it has paid at Rs 58 a share might turn out to be a fantastic bargain.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Price of Tata Motor's nano

By the time bookings for the nano car were announced by Tata Motor its price had already exceeded the sensational 1 lakh tag by as much as 27-28% , though the first 1 lakh cars will be be available to the public at Rs 1 lakh only. Thereafter it will be sold at the prevailing price.

But there is one more aspect to the price situation. Bharat Stage IV is slated to be made applicable from 1st April 2010 in 11 cities which are NCR, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Bengaluru Ahmedabad , Pune, Surat, Kanpur and Agra . As per the dealer leaflet available at he company's website http://www.tatanano.com/ ,the car’s emission norms are in accordance with Bharat Stage III standards. Though however advertisements by the compay are mentioning CO2 levels of 101 g/km. While the fuel efficiency achieved by the car certainly is indicative of the car's improved CO2 emission , the figure claimed by the company is way better than the current European 2012 target of average emission of 120 gm/km.

But CO2 emission is not the only only parameter in emission standards. There are other non - CO2 emissions. These are Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) , Hydrocarbon (HC),
Carbon monoxide (CO) and in the case of diesel cars an additional parameter Particulate matter.
Now when BS IV for the 11 cities are made applicable from 1st April 2010 as has been slated, all manufacturers will have to incorporate the improved standards. This will naturally increase the cost of manufacture. Maruti has already announced that it will stop manufacture of its legendary Maruti 800 by 2016 when BS IV will be applicable for the entire country, as modifying it to conform to the improved standards will not be a cost effective solution. Of course Maruti 800 is of old design and upgrading it to conform to BS IV standards is a daunting task. In comparison Tata's Nano is definitely of latest and innovative design. Whether such cost will be marginal for Tata Motors is to be seen. Also completing the upgrade will require some time and incidentally the scheduled date is not far. So if there are no extensions to the deadline of implementing BS IV or if nano car is exempted considering its small engine size, people after booking the car, might end up waiting for the delivery. And who knows where the commodity prices will be then. At any rate, the myth called a Rs. 1 Lakh people's car stands vindicated.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

New blog

After writing the previous post it occured to me that I could write some more on stock market investing and decided to start http://stock-skill.blogspot.com . This blog will deal with skills that are very essential for investing in stocks. The discussion will have a current bias as far as possible so that it becomes immediately relevant. It is to be kept in mind that following the skills is no guarantee to profits . These only help us to avoid pitfalls and making mistakes . The present blog will continue to deal with contemporary issues.